CenTex GuyDerby time!!
May 7th 2011 21:32
From our blog at prosportswrapup
It's a few hours to post, and you don't have your picks in, what to do?
Easy, go with the crowd. There is a reason Dialed In was the early favorite in this wide open field. Four career starts, three wins and one place when it got crowded on the rail. A decent post position combined with a nice closing speed will make him tough to beat, and a good bet especially if the odds are 5-1 are higher.
ArchArchArch would be a favorite if he hadn't got stuck on the first post. That won't play well into his stalking/closing style as he's very likely to get lost in the crowd. The plan is to pull him well back so he'll be clear of the field, but then he'll also have to pass 18 horses and that's no easy task. I'd avoid him.
Twice The Appeal is going to get some play just because Calvin Borel is on the mount. Borel has won three of the last four Derbys and you can't discount that. you also can't discount that this isn't exactly a great horse. The Grade 3 Sunland Derby was his best race, with a nice even stretch run to be the best. His stalking nature will keep him in midpack early, but he won't have enough to stay up with the closers in this field. He's looking to become the first Sunland Derby to win the Kentucky Derby.
So if you want to find a good play consider some type of exotic play (exacta, trifecta, superfecta) with Dialed In and the following:
Midnight Interlude. A computer model that was fairly accurate on Friday's Kentucky Oaks has Interlude winning today. More importantly, he's a Bob Baffert horse, and Baffert is on a roll this weekend. the big concern is the same that we have with Dialed Up...he only has four races under his belt.
Brilliant Speed--This is going to be a big long shot, but a good risk/reward pay. Bettors will back off because he's not a dirt horse, having run primarily on turf. But this horse has awesome closing speed and is one of the few in the field bred for long distances. Plus, most Churchill Downs experts note that turf horses often do well on the Churchill dirt.
After those three I'd consider Nehro, Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man as my final selections. and if it rains and the track gets muddy, Soldat has to be given consideration.
It's a few hours to post, and you don't have your picks in, what to do?
Easy, go with the crowd. There is a reason Dialed In was the early favorite in this wide open field. Four career starts, three wins and one place when it got crowded on the rail. A decent post position combined with a nice closing speed will make him tough to beat, and a good bet especially if the odds are 5-1 are higher.
Twice The Appeal is going to get some play just because Calvin Borel is on the mount. Borel has won three of the last four Derbys and you can't discount that. you also can't discount that this isn't exactly a great horse. The Grade 3 Sunland Derby was his best race, with a nice even stretch run to be the best. His stalking nature will keep him in midpack early, but he won't have enough to stay up with the closers in this field. He's looking to become the first Sunland Derby to win the Kentucky Derby.
So if you want to find a good play consider some type of exotic play (exacta, trifecta, superfecta) with Dialed In and the following:
Midnight Interlude. A computer model that was fairly accurate on Friday's Kentucky Oaks has Interlude winning today. More importantly, he's a Bob Baffert horse, and Baffert is on a roll this weekend. the big concern is the same that we have with Dialed Up...he only has four races under his belt.
Brilliant Speed--This is going to be a big long shot, but a good risk/reward pay. Bettors will back off because he's not a dirt horse, having run primarily on turf. But this horse has awesome closing speed and is one of the few in the field bred for long distances. Plus, most Churchill Downs experts note that turf horses often do well on the Churchill dirt.
After those three I'd consider Nehro, Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man as my final selections. and if it rains and the track gets muddy, Soldat has to be given consideration.
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